Future scenarios of energy access - Revision history

Ranisha at 08:00, 16 May 2019

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Ranisha at 14:04, 2 May 2018

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Ranisha at 19:23, 30 April 2018

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Johanna at 16:37, 30 April 2018

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Johanna at 15:22, 30 April 2018

2018-04-30T15:22:01Z

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 <p style="text-align: center">
-[[File:Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|center|600px|border|Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|alt=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|link=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png]]'''Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources.'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
+[[File:Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|center|600px|border|Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|alt=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png]]'''Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources.'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
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 *[[Energy Access Figures|Energy Access Figures]]
 *[[:Portal:Energy Access|Energy Access Portal]]
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 Written by: [http://fsr.eui.eu/people/pia-lovengreen-alessi/ Pia Lovengreen Alessi], [http://fsr.eui.eu/universal-access-energy/ Florence School of Regulation]&nbsp;and [http://www.wame2015.org/ World Access to Modern Energy].
 [[Category:Energy_Access]]

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 *IEA,[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report], Energy Access Outlook, 2017
 <references /><br/>
-{{Go to Top}}
 <br/>
 {{Access_Footer}}<br/>
 Written by: [http://fsr.eui.eu/people/pia-lovengreen-alessi/ Pia Lovengreen Alessi], [http://fsr.eui.eu/universal-access-energy/ Florence School of Regulation]&nbsp;and [http://www.wame2015.org/ World Access to Modern Energy].
 [[Category:Policies_and_Regulations]]

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 [[File:Population without access to electricity by region.png|center|600px|Population without access to electricity by region.png|border|alt=Population without access to electricity by region.png]]
 <p style="text-align: center">'''Population without access to electricity by region, IEA 2017'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
 == Trends ==
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 Looking forward, decentralised electrification is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in rural and dispersed communities because of rapidly declining costs of solar PV, battery technologies and energy efficient appliances. It will be supported by changing government policies, market conditions and new business models, as well.
 == Future projections for electricity: The “NEW POLICIES” Scenario ==
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 [[File:New Policies Scenario.png|center|600px|border|New Policies Scenario.png|alt=New Policies Scenario.png|link=File:New Policies Scenario.png]]
 <p style="text-align: center">'''New Policies Scenario'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref><br/>
 == Future projections for electricity: The “ENERGY FOR ALL” Case ==
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 <p style="text-align: center">'''New Policies Scenario for 2030'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
 <br/>
 == Future projections for clean cooking: The “ENERGY FOR ALL” Case ==
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 [[File:Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|center|600px|border|Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|alt=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|link=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png]]'''Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources.'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
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 Currently, we are not on the right course to achieve the SDG 7.1 of providing universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030.'''Trends in electricity access are looking rather positive''' as the technologies needed to reach the goal are available, while new and innovative business models and funding partnerships are appearing and will hopefully provide the extra funds needed to upscale electricity access. Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the only area where a substantial access gap will most likely remain in 2030. In the rest of the world, much has been achieved already. However, there is still room for progress from policy makers and regulatory institutions in establishing the best possible framework to ensure the necessary funds are channelled to electrification, especially of the most dispersed and less populated rural areas. '''The challenges facing universal access to clean cooking are many''' and the outlook remains unfavourable. The investment cost is low compared to the resulting benefits and to the size of overall investment levels in the energy sector. It is, therefore, fundamental to cultivate local markets and foster cultural change so that access to clean cooking becomes a reality for all by 2030.
 =Further Information =
 *[[Energy Access Figures|Energy Access Figures]]
 *[[:Portal:Energy Access|Energy Access Portal]]
 = References =
 *IEA,[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report], Energy Access Outlook, 2017
 <references /><br/>
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+{{Go to Top}}
 {{Access_Footer}}<br/>
 Written by: [http://fsr.eui.eu/people/pia-lovengreen-alessi/ Pia Lovengreen Alessi], [http://fsr.eui.eu/universal-access-energy/ Florence School of Regulation]&nbsp;and [http://www.wame2015.org/ World Access to Modern Energy].
 [[Category:Energy_Access]]

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 When looking at future scenarios of energy access there is one chief source of reliable data: the International Energy Agency, with its special report on Energy Access Outlook published in 2017, a supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook publication.<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref><span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span><br/>
-Here we find reference to two scenarios for energy access by 2030. First, “'''The New Policies Scenario'''”, which aims to provide a quantitative assessment of where existing policies, as well as announced policy intentions, will lead the energy sector. Second, “'''The Energy for All Case'''”, which highlights what more needs to be done to put the world on course to achieve the [[Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals|Sustainable Development Goal 7.1]] of providing universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030.
+Here we find reference to two scenarios for energy access by 2030. First, “'''The New Policies Scenario'''”, which aims to provide a quantitative assessment of where existing policies, as well as announced policy intentions, will lead the energy sector. Second, “'''The Energy for All Case'''”, which highlights what more needs to be done to put the world on course to achieve the [[Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals|Sustainable Development Goal 7.1]] of providing universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030.<br/>
 &nbsp;
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 [[File:New Policies Scenario.png|center|600px|New Policies Scenario.png|alt=New Policies Scenario.png|link=File:New Policies Scenario.png]]
 <p style="text-align: center">'''New Policies Scenario'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref><br/></p>
 == Future projections for electricity: The “ENERGY FOR ALL” Case ==
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 &nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 = Current Clean Cooking Status<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span> =
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 The '''Energy for All Case''' sets out what would be needed to provide universal access to clean cooking for an additional 2.3 billion people by 2030 relative to the New Policies Scenario, with more than 80% of people living in rural areas. For those who gain access in urban areas, LPG, natural gas and electricity are the main solutions. The path to clean cooking access for the more than 1.8 billion people who gain access in rural areas is distributed among improved and advanced cook stoves, LPG and biogas. A cumulative $42 billion investment is needed to ensure universal clean cooking access, relative to the New Policies Scenario.
 <p style="text-align: center">[[File:Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|center|600px|Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|alt=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png|link=Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources..png]]'''Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources.'''<ref name="IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf">IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report, Energy Access Outlook, 2017 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf</ref></p>
 = Conclusion =
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 = References =
-*IEA,[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report], Energy Access Outlook, 2017 <references /><br/>{{Go to Top}}<br/>{{Access_Footer}}<br/>Written by: [http://fsr.eui.eu/people/pia-lovengreen-alessi/ Pia Lovengreen Alessi], [http://fsr.eui.eu/universal-access-energy/ Florence School of Regulation]&nbsp;and [http://www.wame2015.org/ World Access to Modern Energy]
+*IEA,[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report], Energy Access Outlook, 2017
- <br/>
+<references /><br/>
 [[Category:Policies_and_Regulations]]

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-= Future scenarios <br/> =
+= Future scenarios<br/> =
-When looking at future scenarios of energy access there is one chief source of reliable data: the International Energy Agency, with its special report on Energy Access Outlook published in 2017, a supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook publication.<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+When looking at future scenarios of energy access there is one chief source of reliable data: the International Energy Agency, with its special report on Energy Access Outlook published in 2017, a supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook publication.<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 Here we find reference to two scenarios for energy access by 2030. First, “'''The New Policies Scenario'''”, which aims to provide a quantitative assessment of where existing policies, as well as announced policy intentions, will lead the energy sector. Second, “'''The Energy for All Case'''”, which highlights what more needs to be done to put the world on course to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 7.1 of providing universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030.
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 &nbsp;
-= Current electricity status&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span> =
+= Current electricity status&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span> =
-According to the IEA, efforts to promote electricity access are having a positive impact in all regions and the pace of progress has accelerated. Their analysis shows that the number of people without access to electricity fell to 1.1 billion people for the first time in 2016, with nearly 1.2 billion people having gained access since 2000.<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+According to the IEA, efforts to promote electricity access are having a positive impact in all regions and the pace of progress has accelerated. Their analysis shows that the number of people without access to electricity fell to 1.1 billion people for the first time in 2016, with nearly 1.2 billion people having gained access since 2000.<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 Great progress has been made especially in '''developing Asia''', where the number of those who lack access to electricity fell from over one billion in 2000 to fewer than half a billion in 2016. China and India in particular have seen tremendous progress: China achieved universal electricity access in 2015 and half a billion people gained access to electricity in India since 2000.
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 In '''Latin America''', 97% of the population now has access to electricity. Most of the population (17 million people) who lack access live in rural areas, often in isolated communities far from the grid and in difficult terrain.
+<br/><br/><br/>
 <br/>
 <br/>
 '''Population without access to electricity by region'''
-<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 == Trends ==
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 <br/>Looking forward, decentralised electrification is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in rural and dispersed communities because of rapidly declining costs of solar PV, battery technologies and energy efficient appliances. It will be supported by changing government policies, market conditions and new business models, as well.
-&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 == Future projections for electricity: The “NEW POLICIES” Scenario ==
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 Centralized grid electrification continues to be the primary means of electrification because it is the least-cost option per Kwh for the majority of the people gaining access. &nbsp;However, its relative importance is decreasing since these people will represent only half of the total population gaining access in the years to 2030. In rural areas where centralized grid access is more expensive, two-thirds of the population gaining access is expected to do so with some form of decentralised system as this is the least-cost solution in such areas.&nbsp;
-While fossil fuels will continue to play a role in providing access via the grid, their share will decline substantially: 40% of those who gain access over the period to 2030 do so with fossil fuels, down 30 percentage points from the figure for 2000-15. 60% of those who gain access by 2030 will do so through generation from renewables, mostly solar and hydro.<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+While fossil fuels will continue to play a role in providing access via the grid, their share will decline substantially: 40% of those who gain access over the period to 2030 do so with fossil fuels, down 30 percentage points from the figure for 2000-15. 60% of those who gain access by 2030 will do so through generation from renewables, mostly solar and hydro.<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 Average investment costs are $24 billion per year to 2030, 1.5% of the annual global energy investment. The total investment for electricity access is roughly one-third each for on-grid access, mini-grids (generation and distribution) and for off-grid. Almost 90% of all investment in generation is for renewables, particularly for solar PV.
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 <br/>
+<br/>
 '''New Policies Scenario'''
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 The additional annual investment cost is $28 billion per year until 2030, equivalent to 1.7% of total global energy investment with a vast majority going to decentralised power systems.
+<br/><br/><br/>
 <br/>
 <br/>
 '''Additional 674 million people gaining access to electricity'''
-&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+&nbsp;<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
-= Current Clean Cooking Status<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span> =
+= Current Clean Cooking Status<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span> =
 Today around 2.8 billion people – 38% of the global population and almost 50% of the population in developing countries – lack access to clean cooking. Some progress on access to clean cooking has been observed in recent years, mainly in Asia, as a result of targeted policies focusing on the use of LPG in urban areas. Despite these efforts, the number of people without clean cooking access has remained flat since 2000, with population growth outstripping progress in many countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, there were 240 million more people relying on biomass for cooking in 2015 compared to 2000, a trend that is unfortunately expected to continue.
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 &nbsp;
+<br/>
 '''New Policies Scenario for 2030'''
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 &nbsp;
+<br/>
 '''Populations relying on fuels for cooking in developing countries. The Energy for All Case depicts the change in energy sources.'''
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 '''The challenges facing universal access to clean cooking are many''' and the outlook remains unfavourable. The investment cost is low compared to the resulting benefits and to the size of overall investment levels in the energy sector. It is, therefore, fundamental to cultivate local markets and foster cultural change so that access to clean cooking becomes a reality for all by 2030.
-<span style="font-size: 0.85em;">&nbsp;</span>
+<span style="font-size: 0.85em">&nbsp;</span>
 = References: =
-<span style="font-size: 13.6px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">IEA,&nbsp;</span>[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report]<span style="font-size: 13.6px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">, Energy Access Outlook, 2017</span>
+<span style="font-size: 13.6px;  background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)">IEA,&nbsp;</span>[http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2017SpecialReport_EnergyAccessOutlook.pdf World Energy Outlook 2017 Special Report]<span style="font-size: 13.6px;  background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)">, Energy Access Outlook, 2017</span>
 &nbsp;<br/>
-<span style="font-size: 13.6px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Written by:&nbsp;</span>[http://fsr.eui.eu/people/pia-lovengreen-alessi/ Pia Lovengreen Alessi]<span style="font-size: 13.6px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">,&nbsp;</span>[http://fsr.eui.eu/universal-access-energy/ Florence School of Regulation]<span style="font-size: 13.6px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</span>[http://www.wame2015.org/ World Access to Modern Energy]