Latest revision as of 07:30, 20 September 2016
There exist three main approaches to determine gross energy savings.
- Measurement and Verification (M&V): Here do AM 0046 and AMS II.C belong to. They possess complex statistical monitoring procedures and thus require a lot of resources but are very accurate.
- Deemed Savings: It is meant to simplify as it is based on stipulated (“deemed”) values coming from historical savings values of typical projects - only installation and operation is verified. Therefore the calculated energy savings are less complex and less resource intensive but are also less accurate.
- Gross Billing Analysis: It conducts statistical analyses on the energy usage data for all or most of the participants and non-participants of the program. There it is mostly used for residential programs with homogenous participants.
[edit] Measurement and verification (M&V) approaches
[edit] Methodology AM 0046 – Large scale methodology
For distribution of CFLs to households. It took from 2004 – 2006 to be approved by UNFCCC (developed by CDM consultancy Perspectives)
Very complex and time and monitoring intensive procedure (questionable if ever applied):
- Utilization hours of each lamp in sampling groups should be metered individually
- Metering equipment has to be attached to lamp or cable
- Social lottery be introduced to provide incentives
Determination of emission reduction:
- Difference in absolute lighting energy use between baseline sample group and project sample group, multiplied by grid emission factor (determined by methodology ACM 0002)
- If significant differences exist between sample groups and cross-check groups adjustments take place
- Power correction factor is applied
- Takes into account that lamp electricity use depend on actual grid voltage achieved
- Information requirements: household names, addresses, GPS coordinates, dates of return of GLS and distribution of CLS, number of installed lamps at each spot check etc.
Baseline Methodology
Step 1: Determination of the project area(s) i
Step 2: Establish project activity implementation plan
- type of bulbs, number of bulbs distributed, Eligible household etc.)
Step 3: Determination of size of the household pool to establish BSG and PSG
- Minimum size (for statistical representation) of 200 households for sampling
Step 4: Selection of the households to be included in the BSG and the PSG
- Formula to select randomly and representative
Step 5: Installation of measurement equipment
Step 6: Allocation of households to the BSG and PSG
- By coin toss allocate households to pool of BSG or PSG
Step 7: Establishment of Baseline sample buffer group (BSBG) and project sample buffer group (PSBG) (not mandatory)
- To participate if households of BSG/PSG number decreases or else
Step 8: Establishment of project database
- For each spot check at household: lighting appliance documentation
Step 9: Monitoring of utilization hours/electricity
- Spot checks every 3-6 months at all participating BSG and PSG households (are all lighting appliances still there and/or if there are additional ones, are all measurement equipments functioning appropriately, document electricity consumption meter or the utilization hour meter into database)
Step 10: Determination of the power correction factor (PCF)
- The PCF is applied in order to reflect the effect of varying grid voltage on electricity consumption
Step 11: Calculation of the mean and standard deviation of household electricity consumption for lighting
Step 12: Estimation of technical distribution losses in the electricity grid
Step 13: Cross-check of monitoring results by random sampling of households not included in the BSG, PSB, BSBG and PSBG
Step 14: Calculation of emission reductions
Monitoring Methodology
A lot of ex-post surveys and spot-checks
[edit]
AMS II:C - Small scale methodology (also a registered PoA)
“Demand-side energy efficiency activities for specific technologies”
- Has a threshold of participants – compared to large scale
- Meant to make implementation and monitoring less complex (less statistics etc.) than large scale - but adapting the methodology to real-life projects conditions and requirements rose
- Still distribution and monitoring are highly sophisticated
[edit] Programs of Activities
Allows to submit an unlimited number of projects during 28 years – thus a reduction of monitoring costs occurs because only a sample of all projects has to be monitored. Still, if this is really working has to be proved. Based on AMS II.C.
For example, Bachat Lamp Yojana, India is a PoA[1]
Calculation:
- Calculates lighting hours and number of functioning CFLs by monitoring randomly sampled households
- Calculation of lighting usage hours:
- Technology: a monitoring equipment that transmits the lighting usage hour data to a central server (was difficult to get this costly equipment and is not clear how reliable it is)
- Calculation of number of functioning CFLs
- Spot checks of randomly selected households at the end of each monitoring interval (every 6 months)
- Supported by DISCOMs
- Power rating of replaced lamps and distributed CFLs together with number of lamps and usage hours determine energy savings – multiplied by relevant grid emission factor determines emission reductions
- Because of sampling: adjustment by sampling errors (but smaller sample size leads to higher margin of error
File:Icon arrow right.png Trade-off between sample size (less transaction costs) and CER volume
File:Icon arrow right.png careful contemplation of optimal sample size is necessary to maximize CER volume under transaction costs constraints
[edit]
Deemed savings approach
[edit] General
Most widely used approach to quantify energy savings from DSM programs that promote the uptake of small electrical end-use equipment.
Gross energy savings:
- estimated based on stipulated values coming from historical savings values of typical projects - only installation and operation is verified
- Only valid for fixed operating conditions and well-known, documented stipulation values
- Calculation: Multiplying number of installed measures by estimated savings per measure
Adjustment by net-to-gross (NTG) ratio taking into account:
- Free ridership: energy savings that would have taken place in absence of program
- Spillover: program-induced adoption of measure by non-participants/participants not claiming financial or technical assistance
Net energy savings: Multiplying gross energy savings by NTG ratio
[edit] AMS II.J - Small scale methodology
“Demand-side activities for efficient lighting technologies”
Approved August 2008 based on World Bank. Follows deemed savings approach.
- Reduces monitoring requirements as it supposes certain parameters to be “deemed” - still the CDM Executive Board (EB) did not approve all parameters that the World Bank wanted to be “deemed” and requests some ex-ante and follow-up surveys
- Accepted “deemed” parameters by EB: lighting usage hours (3.5 h), type of baseline technology, power rating of the baseline equipment
- But: Trade-off between accuracy in emission reduction calculation and practicability of the methodology application
- Generates significantly less CERs than other methodologies based on monitoring: If e.g. daily operation is set at 3.5 h, but in reality is at 5.1 h that leads in 10 years to a reduction in CER by over 30%
[edit]
Gross billing analysis
- Conducts statistical analyses on the energy usage data for all or most of the participants and non-participants of the program
- Is mostly used for residential programs with homogenous participants
Axel Michaelowa & Daisuke Hayashi & Marc Marr: Challenges for energy efficiency improvement under the CDM—the case of energy-efficient lighting; Energy Efficiency (2009) 2:353–367
- ↑ http://cdm.unfccc.int/ProgrammeOfActivities/Validation/DB/WOW1YYO9VEFAM3D6H2GJ4BZ4AW9YJL/view.html, accessed 2011-02-22
