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| − | = Overview - Electrification Situation in General = | + | = Overview = |
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| − | Every fourth human being is without access to electricity today. Electrification rates are the lowest in '''Sub-Sahara Africa<br/>(SSA)''', but rural access rates remain surprisingly low even in countries with high GDP and impressive overall access rates. The fact that rural access rates are lagging behind across all countries and regions reflects the fact that costs of traditional grid electrification grow exponentially with falling population rates (and load) density. <ref name="Difference">GIZ.2010. What difference can a PicoPV system make? Early findings on small Photovoltaic systems - an emerging lowcost energy technology for developing countries: [[Media:Gtz picopv booklet.pdf|GIZ PicoPV Booklet]]</ref> | + | <u>Electrification Situation in General:</u> Every fourth human being is without access to electricity today. Electrification rates are the lowest in '''Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA)''', but rural access rates remain surprisingly low even in countries with high GDP and impressive overall access rates. The fact that rural access rates are lagging behind across all countries and regions reflects the fact that costs of traditional grid electrification grow exponentially with falling population rates (and load) density. <ref name="Difference">GIZ.2010. What difference can a PicoPV system make? Early findings on small Photovoltaic systems - an emerging lowcost energy technology for developing countries: [[Media:Gtz picopv booklet.pdf|GIZ PicoPV Booklet]]</ref> The figure <ref name="Difference">_</ref> shows electrification rates for various regions. Obviously, it is important to concentrate on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.<br/>[[File:Electrification Rates.JPG|thumb|center|527px|Electrification Rates]]<br/> |
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| − | The figure <ref name="Difference">_</ref> shows electrification rates for various regions. Obviously, it is important to concentrate on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
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| + | = Market Trends in the PicoPV sector and the role of Development Cooperation = |
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| − | [[File:Electrification Rates.JPG|527px|RTENOTITLE]]<br/> | + | -> see <span dir="auto">[[Market_Trends_in_the_PicoPV_Sector_and_the_Role_of_Development_Cooperation|Market Trends in the PicoPV sector and the role of Development Cooperation]]</span> |
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| − | == Market for PicoPV ==
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| − | -> see [[Market for PicoPV|Market for PicoPV]] article
| + | = Outlook = |
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| − | <br/> | + | <u>Various reasons indicate a rpaidly growing market of PicoPV system:</u><br/> |
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| − | == Outlook ==
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| − | <u>Various reasons indicate a rpaidly growing market of PicoPV system:</u><br/>
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| | *Regarding prospect expectations, ''producing cost ''for components of PicoPV systems are falling in the next five years. This will enhance affordability for low-income households. | | *Regarding prospect expectations, ''producing cost ''for components of PicoPV systems are falling in the next five years. This will enhance affordability for low-income households. |
| | *Recently, liquid fuels remain the world's largest energy source. <ref name="EIA">Energy Information Administration. 2010. International Energy Outlook 2010</ref> Therefore, increasing - and volatile - ''fossil fuel costs ''(further enhanced through carbon emission reduction targets)<ref>GTZ Furel Price Index 2000-2009</ref>, will increase the search of households for alternative options.<ref name="Difference">_</ref> (for price projection scenarios see [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ International Energy Outlook 2010]). | | *Recently, liquid fuels remain the world's largest energy source. <ref name="EIA">Energy Information Administration. 2010. International Energy Outlook 2010</ref> Therefore, increasing - and volatile - ''fossil fuel costs ''(further enhanced through carbon emission reduction targets)<ref>GTZ Furel Price Index 2000-2009</ref>, will increase the search of households for alternative options.<ref name="Difference">_</ref> (for price projection scenarios see [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ International Energy Outlook 2010]). |
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| | <u>Moreover, Pico PV systems may well be part of a solution, by allowing “'''pre-electrification'''”. There are several good reasons to be bullish regarding the potential of this emerging off-grid market segment:</u> | | <u>Moreover, Pico PV systems may well be part of a solution, by allowing “'''pre-electrification'''”. There are several good reasons to be bullish regarding the potential of this emerging off-grid market segment:</u> |
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| | *Pico PV systems are over-the-counter consumer products and don’t need specific know-how for installation or O&M. Therefore, distribution has ''lower transaction costs ''than for all other grid or off-grid alternatives. | | *Pico PV systems are over-the-counter consumer products and don’t need specific know-how for installation or O&M. Therefore, distribution has ''lower transaction costs ''than for all other grid or off-grid alternatives. |
| | *The ''welfare gain ''from electrification at household level is arguably largest after stepping from flame-based lighting to efficient electric lights. | | *The ''welfare gain ''from electrification at household level is arguably largest after stepping from flame-based lighting to efficient electric lights. |
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| | === Uganda === | | === Uganda === |
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| − | Targetanalysis in '''Uganda '''show a potential market expansion:
| + | <u>Target analysis in [[Uganda Energy Situation|Uganda]] show a potential market expansion:</u> |
| − | *Up to 60 % of the rural households can afford micro-solar systems of 2-20 Wp (lanterns, phone chargers, radio systems). | + | |
| − | *10 % of the rural population can potentially afford medium to larger SHS PV systems (50 Wp – 150 Wp). | + | *Up to 60 % of the rural households can afford micro-solar systems of 2-20 Wp (lanterns, phone chargers, radio systems). |
| − | *30 % of the rural households would be considered too poor to afford a solar PV system.<ref>GTZ. 2009. Uganda’s Solar Energy Market - Target Market Analysis.</ref> | + | *10 % of the rural population can potentially afford medium to larger SHS PV systems (50 Wp – 150 Wp). |
| | + | *30 % of the rural households would be considered too poor to afford a solar PV system.<ref>GTZ. 2009. Uganda’s Solar Energy Market - Target Market Analysis.</ref> |
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| | === Rwanda === | | === Rwanda === |
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| − | Analysis of market in '''Rwanda '''describe an encouraging development: Growth in the SHS sector is slow but encouraging with at least three companies actively marketing their products. Given the low-income level of the country, this report estimates that less than 10 % of the total off-grid rural population (1.7 million un-electrified) would have an interest in a 10-50 Wp PV system and another 30-40 % would be interested in a micro system. The following table provides a basic model for this market:<ref>GTZ. 2009. Rwanda’s Solar Energy Market Target Market Analysis.</ref> | + | Analysis of market in [[Rwanda Energy Situation|Rwanda]] describe an encouraging development: Growth in the SHS sector is slow but encouraging with at least three companies actively marketing their products. Given the low-income level of the country, this report estimates that less than 10 % of the total off-grid rural population (1.7 million un-electrified) would have an interest in a 10-50 Wp PV system and another 30-40 % would be interested in a micro system. The following table provides a basic model for this market:<ref>GTZ. 2009. Rwanda’s Solar Energy Market Target Market Analysis.</ref><br/>[[File:SHS Market in Rwanda.JPG|thumb|center|671px|SHS Market in Rwanda|alt=SHS Market in Rwanda.JPG]]<br/> |
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| − | [[File:SHS Market in Rwanda.JPG|671px|SHS Market in Rwanda.JPG|alt=SHS Market in Rwanda.JPG]] | + | |
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| | === Tanzania === | | === Tanzania === |
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| − | Analysis of market in '''Tanzania '''claims, that is growing at a rapid rate. Secondly, it is large, as can be seen in the table below. Thirdly, for qualifying companies, the government will be offering USD 2/Wp per sold system for systems below 100 Wp.<ref>GTZ. 2009. Tanzania’s Solar Energy Market Target Market Analysis.</ref> | + | Analysis of market in [[Tanzania Energy Situation|Tanzaniaclaims]], that is growing at a rapid rate. Secondly, it is large, as can be seen in the table below. Thirdly, for qualifying companies, the government will be offering USD 2/Wp per sold system for systems below 100 Wp.<ref>GTZ. 2009. Tanzania’s Solar Energy Market Target Market Analysis.</ref><br/>[[File:Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets.JPG|thumb|center|712px|Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets|alt=Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets.JPG]]<br/> |
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| − | [[File:Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets.JPG|712px|Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets.JPG|alt=Tanzania’s Solar Home Systems Markets.JPG]] | + | |
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| | = Further Information<br/> = | | = Further Information<br/> = |
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| | [[Category:PicoPV]] | | [[Category:PicoPV]] |
| − | [[Category:PicoPV_System]] | + | [[Category:Sub-Saharan_Africa]] |
| | + | [[Category:Uganda]] |
| | + | [[Category:Rwanda]] |
| | + | [[Category:Tanzania]] |
Every fourth human being is without access to electricity today. Electrification rates are the lowest in
, but rural access rates remain surprisingly low even in countries with high GDP and impressive overall access rates. The fact that rural access rates are lagging behind across all countries and regions reflects the fact that costs of traditional grid electrification grow exponentially with falling population rates (and load) density.
shows electrification rates for various regions. Obviously, it is important to concentrate on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
describe an encouraging development: Growth in the SHS sector is slow but encouraging with at least three companies actively marketing their products. Given the low-income level of the country, this report estimates that less than 10 % of the total off-grid rural population (1.7 million un-electrified) would have an interest in a 10-50 Wp PV system and another 30-40 % would be interested in a micro system. The following table provides a basic model for this market:
, that is growing at a rapid rate. Secondly, it is large, as can be seen in the table below. Thirdly, for qualifying companies, the government will be offering USD 2/Wp per sold system for systems below 100 Wp.
