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| − | The impacts of the energy projects implemented under Energising Development generate changes in the areas where the MDGs are set (cp. table 1). Impact monitoring makes changes apparent. Such changes are the result of a combined influence of the society's own internal mechanisms of development, and external political, economic and environmental factors, one of which may be a development programme or project. It is quite difficult to tell which factor caused which change, and it is hardly possible to isolate the project's impact from any other influence. Still, impact monitoring is important, because it is a process of learning about relationships. To be more effective and realistic, decisions and project activities should be reviewed from time to time and be adapted to the changing situation. Furthermore, by conducting impact assessments on a regular basis, the mid to long-term sustainability of results and impacts can be monitored. | + | [[Image:AreaClosure.png]]The impacts of the energy projects implemented under Energising Development generate changes in the areas where the MDGs are set (cp. table 1). Impact monitoring makes changes apparent. Such changes are the result of a combined influence of the society's own internal mechanisms of development, and external political, economic and environmental factors, one of which may be a development programme or project. It is quite difficult to tell which factor caused which change, and it is hardly possible to isolate the project's impact from any other influence. Still, impact monitoring is important, because it is a process of learning about relationships. To be more effective and realistic, decisions and project activities should be reviewed from time to time and be adapted to the changing situation. Furthermore, by conducting impact assessments on a regular basis, the mid to long-term sustainability of results and impacts can be monitored. |
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| − | = Importance of Energy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals <br> = | + | = Importance of Energy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals <br> = |
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| | Table 1: Importance of Energy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals | | Table 1: Importance of Energy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals |
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| − | {| border="1" class="wikitable" | + | {| class="wikitable" border="1" |
| − | |- valign="bottom" align="center" style="font-weight: bold;" | + | |- style="font-weight: bold" valign="bottom" align="center" |
| | | width="234" height="13" | Millennium Development Goal | | | width="234" height="13" | Millennium Development Goal |
| | | width="352" | Role of energy | | | width="352" | Role of energy |
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| | | height="128" | 7) Ensure environmental sustainability<br>- Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources<br>- Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation<br>- By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers | | | height="128" | 7) Ensure environmental sustainability<br>- Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources<br>- Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation<br>- By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers |
| − | | style="font-size: 9pt;" | - Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are major contributors of urban air pollution, acidification of land and water, and the unpredictable effects of climate change. The use of fuelwood and charcoal can be unsustainable when it leads to land degradation from fuelwood gathering and to indoor air pollution from biomass combustion. Environmental damage can be mitigated by increasing energy efficiency, introducing modern technologies for energy production and use, substituting cleaner fuels for polluting fuels, and introducing renewable energy. | + | | style="font-size: 9pt" | - Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are major contributors of urban air pollution, acidification of land and water, and the unpredictable effects of climate change. The use of fuelwood and charcoal can be unsustainable when it leads to land degradation from fuelwood gathering and to indoor air pollution from biomass combustion. Environmental damage can be mitigated by increasing energy efficiency, introducing modern technologies for energy production and use, substituting cleaner fuels for polluting fuels, and introducing renewable energy. |
| | |} | | |} |
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| | The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual project/programme to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results. The GTZ results model (see figure 1) follows the OECD/DAC evaluation principles and deals explicitly with this well-known attribution problem by including an “attribution gap” as a core conceptual element. Development projects and programmes are resourced through German and partner '''inputs''', such as materials, equipment, staff and funds. Using these inputs, the projects launch '''activities '''such as advisory services, trainings, funding, or accompanying measures (e.g. awareness and marketing campaigns). Due to these activities '''outputs''' are generated, which might occur as qualified institutions/organisations, availability of sufficient financial resources of partner organisations or supporting measures in place. These outputs are then utilised by target groups or intermediaries '''(use of outputs)''', e.g. leading to efficient processes and improved services of institutions/organisations or the use of funds for improving energy infrastructure. This use of output is further generating medium-term and long-term development results such as '''outcomes '''(e.g. improved access to electricity for rural households)and '''impacts '''(e.g. increased household income, reduced workload for women). | | The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual project/programme to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results. The GTZ results model (see figure 1) follows the OECD/DAC evaluation principles and deals explicitly with this well-known attribution problem by including an “attribution gap” as a core conceptual element. Development projects and programmes are resourced through German and partner '''inputs''', such as materials, equipment, staff and funds. Using these inputs, the projects launch '''activities '''such as advisory services, trainings, funding, or accompanying measures (e.g. awareness and marketing campaigns). Due to these activities '''outputs''' are generated, which might occur as qualified institutions/organisations, availability of sufficient financial resources of partner organisations or supporting measures in place. These outputs are then utilised by target groups or intermediaries '''(use of outputs)''', e.g. leading to efficient processes and improved services of institutions/organisations or the use of funds for improving energy infrastructure. This use of output is further generating medium-term and long-term development results such as '''outcomes '''(e.g. improved access to electricity for rural households)and '''impacts '''(e.g. increased household income, reduced workload for women). |
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| − | Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive ''attribution ''is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s ''''contributions' '''to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”. Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking | + | Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive ''attribution ''is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s ''''contributions' '''to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”. Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking |
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| − | == <br> Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking == | + | == <br>Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking == |
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| | '''Table 2: Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking''' | | '''Table 2: Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking''' |
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| − | {| border="1" class="wikitable" | + | {| class="wikitable" border="1" |
| − | |- align="center" style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192, 192, 192);" | + | |- style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192,192,192)" align="center" |
| | | width="62" height="26" | Impact Chain | | | width="62" height="26" | Impact Chain |
| | | width="307" | Criteria | | | width="307" | Criteria |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="4" | Output | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="13" rowspan="4" | Output |
| | | · Appropriate & viable stove technologies are developed | | | · Appropriate & viable stove technologies are developed |
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| | | · Increased access to information & knowledge about cooking energy (technologies & techniques) for public | | | · Increased access to information & knowledge about cooking energy (technologies & techniques) for public |
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| − | | height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="4" | Use of output | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="13" rowspan="4" | Use of output |
| | | · Appropriate & viable stove technologies are applied | | | · Appropriate & viable stove technologies are applied |
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| | | · Increased awareness about cooking energy issues in households, social institutions and SMEs | | | · Increased awareness about cooking energy issues in households, social institutions and SMEs |
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| − | | height="26" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="3" | Outcome (Direct benefits) | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="26" rowspan="3" | Outcome (Direct benefits) |
| | | · Improved sustainable access to cooking energy for households, SME and social institutions: | | | · Improved sustainable access to cooking energy for households, SME and social institutions: |
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| | | - More people buy and use efficiently ICS | | | - More people buy and use efficiently ICS |
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| − | | height="26" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="11" | Impact (Indirect benefits) | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="26" rowspan="11" | Impact (Indirect benefits) |
| | | · Increased income generation for stove producers and retailers, more jobs and SMEs created | | | · Increased income generation for stove producers and retailers, more jobs and SMEs created |
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| | | · Less deforestation and land degradation and improved climate protection | | | · Less deforestation and land degradation and improved climate protection |
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| − | | height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="13" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results |
| | | · Reduction of extreme poverty | | | · Reduction of extreme poverty |
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| | |} | | |} |
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| − | <br> | + | <br> |
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| | == Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification == | | == Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification == |
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| | Table 3: Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification | | Table 3: Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification |
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| − | {| border="1" class="wikitable" | + | {| class="wikitable" border="1" |
| − | |- valign="bottom" align="center" style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192, 192, 192);" | + | |- style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192,192,192)" valign="bottom" align="center" |
| | | width="62" height="26" | Impact Chain | | | width="62" height="26" | Impact Chain |
| | | width="307" | Criteria | | | width="307" | Criteria |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="3" | Output | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="13" rowspan="3" | Output |
| | | · Institutions / organisations are qualified | | | · Institutions / organisations are qualified |
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| | | · Back-up/accompanying measures are implemented | | | · Back-up/accompanying measures are implemented |
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| − | | valign="bottom" height="26" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="3" | Use of output | + | | style="font-weight: bold" valign="bottom" height="26" rowspan="3" | Use of output |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Qualified institutions / organisations work more efficiently and offer innovative products and services | | | valign="bottom" | · Qualified institutions / organisations work more efficiently and offer innovative products and services |
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| | | valign="bottom" | · Long-term sustainability is ensured by the implemented back-up/accompanying measures | | | valign="bottom" | · Long-term sustainability is ensured by the implemented back-up/accompanying measures |
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| − | | valign="bottom" height="26" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="2" | Outcome (Direct benefits) | + | | style="font-weight: bold" valign="bottom" height="26" rowspan="2" | Outcome (Direct benefits) |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Improved sustainable access to electricity for households, SME and social institutions | | | valign="bottom" | · Improved sustainable access to electricity for households, SME and social institutions |
| | |- | | |- |
| | | valign="bottom" | · The provided electricity is increasingly used for productive purposes and income generation | | | valign="bottom" | · The provided electricity is increasingly used for productive purposes and income generation |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="21" | Impact (Indirect benefits) | + | | style="font-weight: bold" height="13" rowspan="21" | Impact (Indirect benefits) |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for Households: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for Households: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" style="text-decoration: none;" | · Increased income through household production facilitated by improved working conditions | + | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | · Increased income through household production facilitated by improved working conditions |
| | |- | | |- |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Monetary savings through reduced energy costs | | | valign="bottom" | · Monetary savings through reduced energy costs |
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| | | valign="bottom" | | | | valign="bottom" | |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for Social Infrastructure: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for Social Infrastructure: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" style="text-decoration: none;" | · Improved health services (medical infrastructure) | + | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | · Improved health services (medical infrastructure) |
| | |- | | |- |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Improved educational services (educational infrastructure) | | | valign="bottom" | · Improved educational services (educational infrastructure) |
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| | | valign="bottom" | | | | valign="bottom" | |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for SME & Agriculture: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for SME & Agriculture: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" style="text-decoration: none;" | · Increased number / higher productivity of SME | + | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | · Increased number / higher productivity of SME |
| | |- | | |- |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Development of new businesses / energy-based value chains | | | valign="bottom" | · Development of new businesses / energy-based value chains |
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| | | valign="bottom" | | | | valign="bottom" | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" height="13" style="font-weight: bold;" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results | + | | style="font-weight: bold" valign="bottom" height="13" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results |
| | | valign="bottom" | · Reduction of extreme poverty | | | valign="bottom" | · Reduction of extreme poverty |
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| | Monitoring of <u>output</u>, <u>use of output</u> and <u>direct benefits</u> (outcomes) are part of the existing project monitoring; biannual each EnDev project provides a monitoring report with the no. of people provided with access to a modern form of energy (direct benefit / outcome). Monitoring the <u>indirect benefits</u> (impacts) and <u>highly aggregated results</u> (MDG level) in the impact chains should be part of a regular impact assessment. Therefore, the EnDev projects should select a set of applicable indicators to be monitored on a regular basis through case studies or surveys. If needed, the EnDev team in Eschborn will provide additional support. The following paragraphs and tables present some options for indicators. For reasons of comparison and potential further analysis of data (e.g. cost-benefit-analysis) it is highly recommendable to include certain essential indicators (marked in the tables) for every EnDev Impact-Assessment. | | Monitoring of <u>output</u>, <u>use of output</u> and <u>direct benefits</u> (outcomes) are part of the existing project monitoring; biannual each EnDev project provides a monitoring report with the no. of people provided with access to a modern form of energy (direct benefit / outcome). Monitoring the <u>indirect benefits</u> (impacts) and <u>highly aggregated results</u> (MDG level) in the impact chains should be part of a regular impact assessment. Therefore, the EnDev projects should select a set of applicable indicators to be monitored on a regular basis through case studies or surveys. If needed, the EnDev team in Eschborn will provide additional support. The following paragraphs and tables present some options for indicators. For reasons of comparison and potential further analysis of data (e.g. cost-benefit-analysis) it is highly recommendable to include certain essential indicators (marked in the tables) for every EnDev Impact-Assessment. |
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| − | --> [[Indicator rural electrification and stoves|Full list Indicators "What to meassure" and "How to meassure"]]<br> | + | --> [[Indicator rural electrification and stoves|Full list Indicators "What to meassure" and "How to meassure"]]<br> |
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| | = References = | | = References = |
The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual project/programme to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results. The GTZ results model (see figure 1) follows the OECD/DAC evaluation principles and deals explicitly with this well-known attribution problem by including an “attribution gap” as a core conceptual element. Development projects and programmes are resourced through German and partner inputs, such as materials, equipment, staff and funds. Using these inputs, the projects launch activities such as advisory services, trainings, funding, or accompanying measures (e.g. awareness and marketing campaigns). Due to these activities outputs are generated, which might occur as qualified institutions/organisations, availability of sufficient financial resources of partner organisations or supporting measures in place. These outputs are then utilised by target groups or intermediaries (use of outputs), e.g. leading to efficient processes and improved services of institutions/organisations or the use of funds for improving energy infrastructure. This use of output is further generating medium-term and long-term development results such as outcomes (e.g. improved access to electricity for rural households)and impacts (e.g. increased household income, reduced workload for women).
Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive attribution is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s 'contributions' to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”. Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking
