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| | The impacts of the energy projects implemented under Energising Development generate changes in the areas where the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are set (see table [[Energy_and_the_MDGs|importance of energy for achieving the MDGs]]). Impact monitoring makes changes apparent. Such changes are the result of a combined influence of the society's own internal mechanisms of development, and external political, economic and environmental factors, one of which may be a development programme or project. It is quite difficult to tell which factor caused which change, and it is hardly possible to isolate the project's impact from any other influence. Still, impact monitoring is important, because it is a process of learning about relationships. To be more effective and realistic, decisions and project activities should be reviewed from time to time and be adapted to the changing situation. Furthermore, by conducting impact assessments on a regular basis, the mid to long-term sustainability of results and impacts can be monitored. | | The impacts of the energy projects implemented under Energising Development generate changes in the areas where the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are set (see table [[Energy_and_the_MDGs|importance of energy for achieving the MDGs]]). Impact monitoring makes changes apparent. Such changes are the result of a combined influence of the society's own internal mechanisms of development, and external political, economic and environmental factors, one of which may be a development programme or project. It is quite difficult to tell which factor caused which change, and it is hardly possible to isolate the project's impact from any other influence. Still, impact monitoring is important, because it is a process of learning about relationships. To be more effective and realistic, decisions and project activities should be reviewed from time to time and be adapted to the changing situation. Furthermore, by conducting impact assessments on a regular basis, the mid to long-term sustainability of results and impacts can be monitored. |
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| | = Result Chains = | | = Result Chains = |
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| − | The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual project/programme to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results. The GTZ results model (see figure 1) follows the OECD/DAC evaluation principles and deals explicitly with this well-known attribution problem by including an “attribution gap” as a core conceptual element. Development projects and programmes are resourced through German and partner '''inputs''', such as materials, equipment, staff and funds. Using these inputs, the projects launch '''activities '''such as advisory services, trainings, funding, or accompanying measures (e.g. awareness and marketing campaigns). Due to these activities '''outputs''' are generated, which might occur as qualified institutions/organisations, availability of sufficient financial resources of partner organisations or supporting measures in place. These outputs are then utilised by target groups or intermediaries '''(use of outputs)''', e.g. leading to efficient processes and improved services of institutions/organisations or the use of funds for improving energy infrastructure. This use of output is further generating medium-term and long-term development results such as '''outcomes '''(e.g. improved access to electricity for rural households)and '''impacts '''(e.g. increased household income, reduced workload for women). | + | The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual intervention to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results. |
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| | + | A results chain sets out a logical pattern of how successive and conditional inputs, activities, and outputs that an intervention can directly affect, could lead to more distant outcomes and impacts. |
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| | + | Figure |
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| | + | Development projects and programmes are resourced through German and partner '''inputs''', such as materials, equipment, staff and funds. Using these inputs, the projects launch '''activities '''such as advisory services, trainings, funding, or accompanying measures (e.g. awareness and marketing campaigns). Due to these activities '''outputs''' are generated, which might occur as qualified institutions/organisations, availability of sufficient financial resources of partner organisations or supporting measures in place. These outputs are then utilised by target groups or intermediaries '''(use of outputs)''', e.g. leading to efficient processes and improved services of institutions/organisations or the use of funds for improving energy infrastructure. This use of output is further generating medium-term and long-term development results such as '''outcomes '''(e.g. improved access to electricity for rural households)and '''impacts '''(e.g. increased household income, reduced workload for women). |
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| − | Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive ''attribution ''is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s ''''contributions' '''to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”. Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking | + | Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive ''attribution ''is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s ''''contributions' '''to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”. |
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| | == <br/>Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking == | | == <br/>Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking == |
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| | '''Table 2: Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking''' | | '''Table 2: Impact Chain for the Project type: Energy for cooking''' |
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| − | {| style="width: 100%" class="wikitable" border="1" | + | {| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%;" border="1" |
| − | |- style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192,192,192)" align="center" | + | |- style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192, 192, 192);" |
| − | | height="26" width="62" | Impact Chain | + | | style="width: 62px; height: 26px;" | Impact Chain |
| − | | width="307" | Criteria<br/> | + | | style="width: 307px;" | Criteria<br/> |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="4" height="13" | Output | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="4" | Output |
| | | | | | |
| | *Appropriate & viable stove technologies are developed | | *Appropriate & viable stove technologies are developed |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="4" height="13" | Use of output | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="4" | Use of output |
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| | *Appropriate & viable stove technologies are applied | | *Appropriate & viable stove technologies are applied |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="3" height="26" | Outcome (Direct benefits) | + | | style="height: 26px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="3" | Outcome (Direct benefits) |
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| | *Improved sustainable access to cooking energy for households, SME and social institutions: | | *Improved sustainable access to cooking energy for households, SME and social institutions: |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="11" height="26" | Impact (Indirect benefits) | + | | style="height: 26px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="11" | Impact (Indirect benefits) |
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| | *Increased income generation for stove producers and retailers, more jobs and SMEs created | | *Increased income generation for stove producers and retailers, more jobs and SMEs created |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="5" height="13" | Highly aggregated results | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results |
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| | *Reduction of extreme poverty | | *Reduction of extreme poverty |
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| | |} | | |} |
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| − | | + | <br/> |
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| | == Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification == | | == Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification == |
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| | Table 3: Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification | | Table 3: Impact Chain for the Project type: Rural Electrification |
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| − | {| style="width: 100%" class="wikitable" border="1" | + | {| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%;" border="1" |
| − | |- style="font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192,192,192)" align="center" valign="bottom" | + | |- valign="bottom" style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold; background-color: rgb(192, 192, 192);" |
| − | | height="26" width="62" | Impact Chain | + | | style="width: 62px; height: 26px;" | Impact Chain |
| − | | width="307" | Criteria<br/> | + | | style="width: 307px;" | Criteria<br/> |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="3" height="13" | Output | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="3" | Output |
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| | *Institutions / organisations are qualified | | *Institutions / organisations are qualified |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Partner organisations have sufficient financial resources to implement pro-poor electrification programmes | | *Partner organisations have sufficient financial resources to implement pro-poor electrification programmes |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="3" height="26" valign="bottom" | Use of output | + | | style="height: 26px; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: bottom;" rowspan="3" | Use of output |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Qualified institutions / organisations work more efficiently and offer innovative products and services | | *Qualified institutions / organisations work more efficiently and offer innovative products and services |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Partner organisations use financial resources to provide facilitated access to modern energy services for households, SME, social institutions | | *Partner organisations use financial resources to provide facilitated access to modern energy services for households, SME, social institutions |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Long-term sustainability is ensured by the implemented back-up/accompanying measures | | *Long-term sustainability is ensured by the implemented back-up/accompanying measures |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="2" height="26" valign="bottom" | Outcome (Direct benefits) | + | | style="height: 26px; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: bottom;" rowspan="2" | Outcome (Direct benefits) |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved sustainable access to electricity for households, SME and social institutions | | *Improved sustainable access to electricity for households, SME and social institutions |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *The provided electricity is increasingly used for productive purposes and income generation | | *The provided electricity is increasingly used for productive purposes and income generation |
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| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="21" height="13" | Impact (Indirect benefits) | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold;" rowspan="21" | Impact (Indirect benefits) |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for Households: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for Households: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | | + | | style="text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Increased income through household production facilitated by improved working conditions | | *Increased income through household production facilitated by improved working conditions |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Monetary savings through reduced energy costs | | *Monetary savings through reduced energy costs |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved indoor air quality in households | | *Improved indoor air quality in households |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved conditions for reading / studying of school children | | *Improved conditions for reading / studying of school children |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Reduced workload / improved working conditions for women | | *Reduced workload / improved working conditions for women |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved information and communication facilities | | *Improved information and communication facilities |
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| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Enhanced perception of safety | | *Enhanced perception of safety |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Enhanced social cohesion in the community | | *Enhanced social cohesion in the community |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for Social Infrastructure: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for Social Infrastructure: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | | + | | style="text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved health services (medical infrastructure) | | *Improved health services (medical infrastructure) |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved educational services (educational infrastructure) | | *Improved educational services (educational infrastructure) |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Enhanced perception of safety | | *Enhanced perception of safety |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Enhanced social cohesion in the community | | *Enhanced social cohesion in the community |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | |- valign="bottom" | | |- valign="bottom" |
| − | | style="text-decoration: underline" | Electricity for SME & Agriculture: | + | | style="text-decoration: underline;" | Electricity for SME & Agriculture: |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="text-decoration: none" valign="bottom" | | + | | style="text-decoration: none; vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Increased number / higher productivity of SME | | *Increased number / higher productivity of SME |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Development of new businesses / energy-based value chains | | *Development of new businesses / energy-based value chains |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Increased agricultural productivity | | *Increased agricultural productivity |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | style="font-weight: bold" rowspan="5" height="13" valign="bottom" | Highly aggregated results | + | | style="height: 13px; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: bottom;" rowspan="5" | Highly aggregated results |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Reduction of extreme poverty | | *Reduction of extreme poverty |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved economic conditions | | *Improved economic conditions |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved health situation | | *Improved health situation |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved educational situation | | *Improved educational situation |
| | | | |
| | |- | | |- |
| − | | valign="bottom" | | + | | style="vertical-align: bottom;" | |
| | *Improved situation of women | | *Improved situation of women |
| | | | |
| | |} | | |} |
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| − |
| |
| | | | |
| | = Monitoring and impact assessment = | | = Monitoring and impact assessment = |
The impacts of the energy projects implemented under Energising Development generate changes in the areas where the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are set (see table importance of energy for achieving the MDGs). Impact monitoring makes changes apparent. Such changes are the result of a combined influence of the society's own internal mechanisms of development, and external political, economic and environmental factors, one of which may be a development programme or project. It is quite difficult to tell which factor caused which change, and it is hardly possible to isolate the project's impact from any other influence. Still, impact monitoring is important, because it is a process of learning about relationships. To be more effective and realistic, decisions and project activities should be reviewed from time to time and be adapted to the changing situation. Furthermore, by conducting impact assessments on a regular basis, the mid to long-term sustainability of results and impacts can be monitored.
The actual difficulties of assessing development results and impacts lie in the “attribution”, i.e. in the classification of a highly-aggregated development progress for individual projects. This means that the greater the distance from the individual intervention to the spheres where the changes take place, the more difficult it becomes to assign causal relationships to development results.
A results chain sets out a logical pattern of how successive and conditional inputs, activities, and outputs that an intervention can directly affect, could lead to more distant outcomes and impacts.
Up to the level of “use of outputs”, attribution is relatively easy in most cases. However, as we climb up to the levels of “outcomes” and “impacts” external factors that cannot be influenced by projects and programmes become increasingly important. The attribution gap widens up to an extent where the observed changes cannot be directly related to project outputs any more. Up to the level where a causal relationship between outputs and observed development changes can be shown, projects are entitled to claim the observed positive development changes as a “direct benefit” or “outcome”. The project or programme objective is set at this level of the result chain. Often, however, the actual reason for launching operations in a sector or country is to achieve results beyond that level, and these can usually be influenced only indirectly by the project/programme. In general, it is not possible to identify a causal relationship explaining how these “indirect benefits” came about, as too many actors are involved to clearly isolate the effect of a single intervention. Nonetheless, highly aggregated development results (for instance progress made towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals) need to be kept in view. Even though comprehensive attribution is not possible, EnDev projects should provide plausible hypotheses on the project’s 'contributions' to overarching development results. The following tables show the typical impact chain for projects regarding “Energy for cooking” and “Rural Electrification”.
