Figures for the end use of energy are still strongly affected by the oil industry, which accounts for 28% of the primary energy consumption during extraction, processing and distribution of hydrocarbons. The transportation sector takes the biggest share of the final energy consumption, with 28% of the total primary energy and 45% of the final energy. In the absence of an extended railway system 92% of this energy corresponds to road transport. With an annual growth of 4.7% (way over GDP of 2.6%) this sector is also the main driver for the steady increase in national energy consumption.
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Between 1998 and 2008 the energy demand of the industrial and residential sectors grew at the modest annual rates of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, and the commercial sector even shrank at a pace of -1.1%. Along with the decrease in oil production this rates account for a modest but steady reduction of the energy intensity of the economy.
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Electricity
During 2009 the electricity generated was 268200 GWh (around 10% of primary energy) from a total installed capacity of 60.44GW. Only 58.5% of this was produced by public service (CFE and LyFC) while 29.1% was commissioned under the PIE [Independent Electricity Producer] scheme. A further 9.4% corresponds to Self-Supply and Cogeneration by private enterprises (usually not included as such in the National Energy Balance).
The electricity production is also dominated by fossil fuels, which accounted for 80% of the Electricity produced in 2011. Combined-cycle gas power plants already take the biggest share and are growing fast, accounting for 75% of the capacity increase between 2000 and 2008. Gas as a general fuel is substituting other energy sources for electricity generation at an annual rate of 16%.
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Ownership balance of the generation capacity is slowly drifting, since more than half of the new installed capacity since 2000 is privately run by independent producers. An overall efficiency improvement is taking place due to the higher efficiency of combined cycle plants, though by 2010 the average generation efficiency of all state-owned plants was still 40.5%, with 48% for all PIE plants.
Nuclear power takes a small and constant share of 1365MW in the energy portfolio, but an increase of up to 18GW is being considered as part of the scenarios of the National Energy Strategy (ENE 2012 – 2016) as a means to achieve the fossil-fuel share reductions specified in the Law for Renewables (LAERFTE). “Elaborating studies to determine the financial, technical, political and social feasibility, as well as environmental implications of incorporating new nuclear power stations” is one of the strategies proposed in the ENE 2012 – 2026.
Levelized production costs for electricity generation according to CFE (in 2011 USD) range from 5.5¢/kWh for combined cycle to 15.1¢/kWh for turbogas plants, with values between 8.3 and 9.8¢/kWh for coal, geothermal and nuclear power plants; values for hydro range from 7.6 to 23.7¢/kWh. Prices to the public can be strongly affected by subsidies, ranging from 3.0 to 16.8 ¢/kWh for the agricultural and commercial sectors respectively. Domestic and industrial tariffs typically range from 6.5 to 9.0¢/kWh depending upon consumption patterns.
Transmission and distribution losses accounted for 11.3% of the generated electricity in 2011, from which more than 50% were “non-technical losses” (i.e. electricity theft). still high compared to international standards of 6% to 8%.
Renwable energy sources
According to SENER the installed capacity of renewable energy sources by the end of 2011 was 2.4GW, corresponding to 3.88% of the total.[9] Wind parks La Venta III, Oaxaca I and IV, which started operation by April 2012 represent 307MW more[10], rising the share of renewables to at least 4.38%.
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Hydropower
According to the National Energy Strategy 2012 - 2026, by the end of 2011 a total of 11.6GW effective installed capacity was available from Hydro, of which only 1% corresponds to small hydro[9], a much higher figure of 416MW is given in the site for Renewable Energies of the Ministry of Energy[11], the difference being probably due to the definition of "small" hydro. The value is in any case expected to grow fast, as it is now three times higher than it was in 2006, and additional 132.6MW already have permission for construction.
The total estimated potential for large hydro (>40GWh/year) corresponds to an installed capacity of 52 GW, of which nearly 20% is already in operation. An overall production of 38TWh/year could be expected from the overall capacity. The potential for small hydro (5MW to 30MW) was estimated by CONAE in 2005 as 3.2GW, but so far no reliable estimates exist for micro- and mini-hydro.[12],[13][9]
Solar power
Mexico is a sun belt country with an annual average irradiation of 5.5 kWh/m 2·day. Depending on location and time of the year the value may go from 3.0 to 8.5 kWh/m 2·day[9], making solar radiation a potentially unlimited energy source. A simplistic but frequently given figure is that a square area of 25km side covered with PV panels in the Sonora desert could provide todays complete electricity demand.
The actual potential is limited by the (still) high cost of electricity production with PV and the absence of subsidies for the technology. CONUEE in cooperation with the GTZ estimated a market niche of only 89MW for grid connected PV systems with grid parity by 2009, corresponding to small percentage of households in the DAC (High Consumption Domestic) tariff. The same study estimates 693MW if the price of PV modules goes down 20% within 5 years, and 1336MW with a further reduction of 50%.[14]
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Installed capacity started to take off during the last few years. The first plant on public service started operating in 2011 in Santa Rosalía, Baja California Sur, with 1MWp PV. A 5MWp plant should start operating in 2012 near Mexicali, Baja California Norte.[9]The first large scale project for Concentrated Solar Power is the hybrid combined-cycle plant Agua Prieta II, which should be completed by 2013. The solar part consists of 14MW of Parabolic through mirrors.[15]
The potential for solar hot water heaters was estimated as 115PJ by CONAE in 2005, the figure represents 2.3% of the current final energy consumption, and was originally calculated considering a 50% coverage of all energy requirement for low temperature heating. According to the National Association of Solar Energy (ANES) 1.94 million square meters of collectors were already installed by 2010, generating some 9.3PJ per year (8% of the estimated potential).[16]
More infomation:
Wind power
According to SENER the potential for wind energy in Mexico is higher than 50GW, while the Mexican Association of Wind Energy (AMDEE) rises this value to 71GW[17] (both with capacity factors higher than 20%). The levelized cost of electricity production from wind was calculated as 10.3US¢/kWh by 2011, just above nuclear (9.8¢/kWh) and only 25% higher than coal (8.3¢/kWh). With rising prices of fossil fuels SENER estimates that 20GW of wind energy projects could become competitive by 2020.[9]
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The actual installed capacity is booming, and went from 2MW in 2006 to 1080MW by April 2012[9][18], it is expected that by the end of 2012 private and public projects will add up to 2.2GW, 4% of the electric installed capacity[19]. Most projects are located in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which according to AMDEE has a potential on its own of 10GW, offering wind power densities of more than 800W/m2 and capacity factors in the range of 40%. La Rumorosa, in Baja California is apparently lagging behind, but might have 4.57GW installed within the next five years.[17]
NREL hass developed wind atlas of some regions.
More information:
Geothermal
Mexico is the 4th place in the world in geothermal installed capacity[20], with 958 MW (2011). The technology accounts for 2.53% of the total electricity production, but most of the resources available with the current plant designs seem to be already tapped. Installed capacity has fallen 7.6% since 2006, while only 186MW of proved reserves remain to be exploited. Recent studies, however, have suggested that up to 2.8GW producing 9.79TWh per year could be exploited using binary-cycle and condensation plants.[9]
Biomass
It is estimated that fuel wood represents between 8% and 10% of the final energy consumption, and 36% to 45% of the residential use. In figures compiled by the National Forest Commission (CONAFOR), around 25% of the national population uses wood for cooking (up to 89% in the rural sector). Domestic use of wood for self-consumption accounts for 24.9 Mm3 of wood per year, according to many studies this share is mostly dead biomass and therefore Not a major cause of deforestation, having even a positive impact in forest conservation and prevention of wildfires[21]. Fuel wood use by the small industry (6 Mm3) would only be the 4th cause of deforestation, after Land-Use change, use of wood for industrial (non-energetic) purposes, and wildfires.[22]
Bagasse from the sugar cane industry provides 1.1% of the primary energy consumption, including 512MW installed electric capacity. Important opportunities might derive in this sector from modernization of the technology and full exploitation of sub-utilized installed capacity.[9] The potential for electricity generation from biogas gas been estimated in 3GW, but the current installed capacity still lies at 54MW, and is growing at some 10MW per year since 2008.[19]
The production of fuel ethanol should take off in the following years, as PEMEX will be buying up to 230 million liters anhydrous ethanol per year by 2017. This buy alone would add up to some 0.1% of the current final energy consumption. Other energy crops include Jatrhopa, of which 8,113 ha have been sown between 2007 and 2011, mainly in Chiapas and Yucatán. According to the National Institute of Agricultural & Forest studies (INIFAP) a total of 18,000ha could be used for bio-fuel crops[23]
