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KNOWLEDGE PRODUCT SUMMARY
| Title:
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A GIS-based Approach for Electrification Planning - A Case Study on Nigeria
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Type:
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Case Studies
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| Organization:
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KTH Royal Institute of Technology, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Region/Country:
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Global/Multiple
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| Year of publication:
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2015
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| Description:
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According to the latest Global Tracking Framework (2015), 18% of the global and 57% of the African population
live without access to electricity services—a key impediment towards social and economic growth. Accelerating
access to electricity requires, inter alia, strategies and programmes that effectively address and account for the
geographical, infrastructural and socioeconomic characteristics of a country or region. This paper focuses on considering
these characteristics by developing a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to inform
electrification planning and strategies. The methodology is applied to Nigeria in order to identify the
optimal mix of electrification options, ranging from grid extensions to mini-grid and off-grid solutions. The
case study illustrates how this optimal mix is influenced by a range of parameters—including population density,
existing and planned transmission networks and power plants, economic activities, tariffs for grid-based electricity,
technology costs for mini-grid and off-grid systems and fuel costs for consumers. For a certain level of energy
access, on-grid connections would be optimal for the majority of the new connections in Nigeria; grid extension
constitutes the lowest cost option for approximately 86% of the newly electrified population in this modelling effort
with 2030 as the time horizon. However, there are some remote areas with low population densities where a
mini-grid or a stand-alone solution are the most economic options; deploying some combination of solar, wind,
hydro and diesel technologies depending on the locational resource availability.
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| Author / Producer:
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Dimitrios Mentis, Manuel Welsch, Francesco Fuso Nerini, Oliver Broad, Mark Howells, Morgan Bazilian, Holger Rogner
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